Barclays Premier League
Saturday 26 December 2009
Birmingham v Chelsea, 12:45 ESPN
Burnley v Bolton, 14:00
Fulham v Tottenham, 13:00
Liverpool v Wolverhampton, 17:30 ESPN
Man City v Stoke, 15:00
Sunderland v Everton, 15:00
West Ham v Portsmouth, 13:00
Wigan v Blackburn, 15:00.
Sunday 27 December 2009
Arsenal v Aston Villa, 13:30 Sky TV
Hull City v Manchester United, 16:00 Sky TV
As a Christmas gift to their punters bookiers Paddy Power are offering Money-Back Specials on not one but TWO matches at the weekend.
The Irish bookie will be returning losing single bets on selected markets in the match between Liverpool and Wolves if Fernando Torres scores the last goal of the match, and in the match between Arsenal and Aston Villa if Martin O’Neill’s team beat Wenger’s boys.
Sky Bet are offering a selection of special enhanced doubles for individual teams fixtures over the Christmas period.
Roberto Mancini’s first match in charge sees Manchester City host Stoke City on Boxing Day, then it’s on to Molineux on Bank Holiday Monday to take on Wolves. Sky Bet are offering 7/5 for Mancini to start life as City manager with two wins.
Chelsea will be looking at extending their lead at the top of the Barclays Premier League and are 11/10 to beat both Birmingham City at St Andrews on Boxing Day and Fulham at Stamford Bridge on Bank Holiday Monday.
Tottenham will be looking at closing the two-point gap on Aston Villa in 4th place. Spurs are 5/2 to overcome both Fulham (a) and West Ham (h).
For Sky Bet Tim Reynolds said: “These enhanced doubles will allow fans to support their team over the Christmas break with a little bit of added value.”
WEDNESDAY’S PREMIER LEAGUE MATCHES
BURNLEY v ARSENAL
A half-time verbal volley from boss Arsene Wenger has been attributed as the main reason behind Arsenal’s comeback at Anfield on Sunday. It made good headlines for Monday’s papers but probably didn’t give the full story. From the moment Glen Johnson’s own-goal went into the Liverpool net the home side were woeful. Arsenal were not actually that much better than their first half performance, but a piece of individual brilliance from Andrey Arshavin gave The Gunners all three points.
Arsenal’s second away game in the North-West in four days comes at Turf Moor tonight where they face Burnley. Wenger’s side have lost three away matches in the league already this season, but all of those defeats have come against sides in the top half of the table. The North London side have in fact taken 19 points out of a possible 21 against teams in the bottom half, home and away. In those seven games they have scored 28 goals (an average of exactly four per game).
Arsenal are the strong favourites at 1/2 for this match, with the home side at 11/2 and a draw priced at 3/1. Burnley boss Owen Coyle has insisted his team will stick to the core elements of a passing game that has given them every chance of extending their Premier League adventure for at least another season. That may well be music to Wenger’s ears considering his side’s well documented struggles when a physical battle ensues. Coyle could of course be employing a slight element of mind games and it would not be surprising to see the home side add a touch of brawn to their normal game. Burnley have only been defeated once at home all season, but a recent record of one home win in four points to how well they performed at the start of the campaign. They’ve scored in every one of their home matches so far and, with Arsenal’s defence still looking far from stingy, a price of 5/6 for both teams to score does look generous.
Arsenal are 13/2 to find the net four or more times and keep up that excellent scoring ratio against the league’s lesser lights. The Gunners are also 7/1 on our match specials to come from behind and win, as they did at Anfield. This is the type of game where Arsenal could take advantage and look like real title contenders. Theo Walcott’s form has been patchy to say the least, but a regular run in the side and a chance to run at Burnley’s defence could well bring out the best in him at Turf Moor. Walcott is 3/1 to score at anytime and 10/1 to get the first goal of the game. Sunday’s match winner Arshavin is 2/1 to repeat the feat and score in any Arsenal win on Blue Sqaure’s special ‘Score/Win Double’ market!
CHELSEA v PORTSMOUTH
It’s top versus bottom at Stamford Bridge as Avram Grant takes Portsmouth to his old club Chelsea. The Blues blotted their 100% home record in the league with a 3-3 draw against Everton at the weekend. Extending their winless run in all competitions to four games in the process. Their normally watertight defence has shipped at least two goals per game in those four outings. Despite problems at the back, Chelsea’s twin attacking force of Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba are still doing the business. Both forwards feature at the top of the ‘First Goalscorer’ market, with Drogba edging favouritism at 11/4. Anelka is 100/30 second favourite to net first. Portsmouth have lost three of their last seven in the league, but that’s an improvement on their start to the season which saw them lose seven on the bounce. Grant and his men need to overcome a worrying statistic that has seen them gain only one point from a possible 24 against teams in the top half this season. When Pompey win, they tend to win without conceding. Rather than taking the 16/1 on an away win, you may as well go the whole hog and back Portsmouth to win-to-nil at 40/1 if you fancy a big shock!
LIVERPOOL v WIGAN ATHLETIC
Rafa Benitez has staked his claim in the football tipping arena by making a bold statement on Liverpool’s finishing position this season. Rafa has publicly stated that Liverpool WILL finish in the top four this season. Not many gifts come packaged at a price of 11/10 (Liverpool’s current price to finish in the top four), and with this particular bet you can cut out and keep Rafa’s words and drag him through the courts when they finish sixth in May. Where there’s a blame there’s a claim! In contrast to last season, where a number of draws against poor sides at home blunted their title challenge, this season the problems have come against the classier teams. Liverpool’s record against the bottom half of the table reads as 19 points from a possible 21, whereas against the top half it’s a shocking 5 points from a possible 27.
Tonight’s opponents Wigan would fall into the first category, and Liverpool’s home record against teams in the bottom half is an unblemished 3 wins out of 3 averaging 4 goals per game. Rafa’s side are 4/1 to score four or more goals tonight, but also 13/2 to score first and fail to win as they have done in their last two games against Arsenal and Fiorentina. Wigan’s overall defensive record is the worst in the division but has the heavy burden of the nine goals conceded at Tottenham weighing it down. The away side have only one clean sheet in their last ten games, but have also failed to score only once in the same period. The price of 4/5 for both teams to find the net tonight, appeals on that basis. Liverpool to win 3-1 and 4-1 are 11/1 and 18/1 respectively on the correct-score market. Glen Johnson sparked Arsenal’s revival at the weekend when putting past his own keeper but the former Chelsea man gets forward well and could possibly make amends tonight with a goal at anytime, currently 8/1. Star striker Fernando Torres is a very tempting 5/4 to score in any home victory on the popular ‘Score/Win Double’ market.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v MANCHESTER CITY
Spurs are fifth in the league table but only tenth in the standings when just home matches are taken into account. Saturday’s 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Wolves did not help matters, and punters who had accas let down by that result obviously didn’t heed the warnings from a similar odds-on home defeat against Stoke. Harry Redknapp’s team have only won three of their last nine in all competitions and have failed to score in two of their last three matches. Opponents Man City have lost only once in the league all season, but have yet to climb any higher than their hosts due to an incredible run of draws. A home win is 6/5, with a City victory at 11/5. Those taking the latter price should keep in mind that City haven’t won away in the league since August, and let plenty of punters down at the weekend when drawing (again!) at Bolton. Carlos Tevez is on a good run for the away side and in our raft of player specials he is 8/1 to get the first goal, 5/1 to hit City’s opener, 20/1 to bag a brace and 100/1 to score three! The aforementioned ‘Score/Win Double’ market has Tevez at 6/1 and his strike partner Emmanuel Adebayor at 9/2 to score in a win for his team on the ground where his 2007 effort for Arsenal won him the BBC Goal of the Season.
ENHANCED MULTIPLE
The Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool treble pays a stand-out 6/4 in our ‘Enhanced Multiples’ section and looks particularly solid based on the above.
LADBROKES has closed its Christmas number one market believing X Factor winner Joe McElderry to be unstoppable.
And the firm are now betting on the festive chart without the reality TV victor, having seen the champ backed into 1/25.
Ladbrokes spokesman, Nick Weinberg, said: “Joe is as close to a certainty as you are likely to find. Fans went crazy for him in the aftermath of Sunday night.”
Chris Hollins is 4/6 to win Strictly Come Dancing.
LATEST BETTING (subject to change)
Strictly Come Dancing
Winner
Chris Hollins 4/6
Ricky Whittle 11/10
JOE McElderry is the red-hot favourite to secure Christmas number one after winning X Factor last night.
The South Shields sensation- the pre show 2/9 favourite- has been cut to 1/8, from 2/9, to earn top spot.
Ladbrokes spokesman, Nick Weinberg, said: “Joe is the toast of fans up and down the country. For weeks now he’s look liked the only realistic winner and has justified his billing.
“Christmas chart success is virtually assured.”
Winning mentor Cheryl Cole is 15/8 favourite to make it three in a row next year.
LATEST BETTING FROM LADBROKES (odds subject to change)
Christmas number one single (Radio One)
Joe McElderry 1/8
Rage Against The Machine 3/1
Susan Boyle 20/1
Michael Jackson 25/1
Peter Kay/Children In Need 33/1
Rolf Harris & Rick Parfitt 33/1
John & Edward 40/1
Take That 40/1
Westlife 40/1
2010 Winning X Factor manager
Cheryl 15/8
Simon 9/4
Dannii 3/1
Louis 10/3
Premier League Fixtures
Barclays Premier League
Saturday 12 December 2009
Birmingham v West Ham, 15:00
Bolton v Man City, 15:00
Burnley v Fulham, 15:00
Chelsea v Everton, 15:00
Hull v Blackburn, 15:00
Man Utd v Aston Villa, 17:30, ESPN
Stoke v Wigan, 12:45, Sky TV
Sunderland v Portsmouth, 15:00
Tottenham v Wolverhampton, 15:00
Sunday 13 December 2009
Liverpool v Arsenal, 16:00. Sky TV
Alan Alger from league sponsors Blue Square looks ahead to the First Round of the FA Trophy:
Just how important is the FA Trophy? It’s an interesting question and one that could provide varying answers at different clubs up and down the country. One person who may give a very positive answer is York City boss Martin Foyle. Foyle’s side are on a six game winning streak in the league and he received the November ‘manager of the month’ award for the Blue Square Premier. The Minstermen hit third spot in the table with a fantastic unbeaten run and have laid down a marker for the other play-off hopefuls. Last season City struggled through a league campaign that was littered with draws and unlikely defeats. One bright spot was their trip to Wembley for the FA Trophy final against Stevenage. That day out ended in defeat, but the revenue and interest generated from the trip to the National Stadium has brought about a change in fortunes within the space of a few months. Foyle’s side are unbeaten at home and have one of the tightest defences in the division. People I’ve spoken to at the club point to the Trophy as the catalyst for the change in form as well as hailing Foyle’s patience and tactical ability. So for a club that are not particularly well off financially but have everything right in other areas (a definition that could apply to at least half of the clubs in the BSP), an FA Trophy run can be the difference between promotion contention and mid-table obscurity. York begin this season’s Trophy campaign away at Hinckley United. The game offers a fascinating match up between the November ‘players of the month’ in both the Blue Square Premier and North divisions – Hinckley striker Adam Webster and his York counterpart Richard Brodie. As well as ‘manager of the month’ in the North Dean Thomas up against the aforementioned Foyle. Those that believe in a jinx after a monthly award should check the results from the evening of the announcements. Both Hinckley and York won 1-0 away from home. The goals scored by? Webster and Brodie of course! York are 11/1 to go one better than last year and be victorious under the arch. For the match itself Hinckley are the 3/1 outsiders, York are the 8/11 odds-on favourites.
After two epic league encounters the tie of the first round has to be Cambridge versus Luton. Inconsistency has blighted both clubs and the market for the game cannot split the sides. Both teams are priced at 6/4 with the draw at 11/5. Plenty of goalmouth action occurred in the two league matches and maybe more of the same awaits. Fans of both clubs, but especially those from Luton, may frown upon this essentially non-league competition. Team’s with a priority to get back into the Football League probably shed few tears when their Trophy run comes to an end, and likewise the supporters probably see it as a blessing in disguise. Attitudes will hopefully change after the positive noises coming out of the Kit-Kat Crescent. Luton are the 10/1 third favourites to win the competition, with Cambridge at 20/1.
The favourites to lift the Trophy are of course league leaders Oxford United at 9/2. They host Hayes & Yeading United and are 4/9 favourites to progress to the second round. Chris Wilder will probably use the fringe players in his squad as they blaze a trail at the top of the league. Their midweek FA Cup defeat at Barrow was a rare low point in a fantastic few months. Wilder’s priority will be returning the club to the Football League and for this reason, an away win may appeal to some at a stand-out price of 11/2. I imagine the last thing Oxford will want is another midweek replay, the draw is 11/4. AFC Wimbledon boss Terry Brown is certainly one manager who is placing the Trophy highly on his list of targets. The Wombles can become the first club to win the FA Cup, FA Amateur Cup and Trophy if successful this season. They start their Wembley journey as one of the shortest priced favourites of the weekend at 1/3 to beat Boreham Wood.
Kettering may be deflated from their midweek defeat at Elland Road and even though opponents Barrow played on the same night, they didn’t have to endure extra time against League 1 opposition. Barrow are 11/4 to win at Rockingham Road and that looks a value call.
Alan Alger from Blue Square highlights the best bets on a busy weekend of Premier League action:
In a Premier League season that has so far produced ‘goals galore’ it was strange to see seven out of the twenty teams fail to hit the net last weekend. Our new ‘Goal Crazy’ coupon poses the simple question as to whether both teams will score in any given game. In the top-flight this season the answer has been yes in an incredible 54% of matches. When you remove the 29 matches involving the tight defences from Manchester United and Chelsea the figure leaps to 58%. So we’re getting value at 3/4 or bigger in games between the other 18 clubs that make up the division. The good news is that every Premier League game in the ‘Goal Crazy’ coupon this weekend (including the ones featuring United and Chelsea) has prices for ‘both teams to score’ at exactly 3/4 or bigger. The only bad news is that we have to find the ones that will come in.
Having studied the fixtures thoroughly, the first game that stands out is Birmingham at home to West Ham United. In their ten previous games before being rolled over and tickled by Manchester United last week, The Hammers and their opponents have both found the net. The same can be said of Birmingham in six of their last nine outings. The current 10/11 on offer for this fixture looks a great bet.
Our next port of call is The Reebok Stadium where Bolton take on Mark Hughes’ Manchester City. City ended their run of draws with a hard fought victory over Chelsea at Eastlands and need to make sure that good result doesn’t go to waste on their short trip up the A666 (a devilishly tricky road by all accounts). Bolton have answered a resounding yes on the ‘Goal Crazy’ coupon in 10 of their last 12 matches whilst City have a similar record of 10 from their last 11. Odds of 4/5 totally underestimate the stats and look like very good value.
The Tottenham versus Wolves match at White Hart Lane can complete a nice treble. Wolves’ last five away games have seen four instances of goals for both teams. Tottenham’s last three matches have been the same (even Wigan got one reply to their nine conceded). This game is another 10/11 chance on the coupon, completing a juicy 11/2 treble.
If goal markets aren’t your cup of tea there’s a raft of competitive fixtures for match result bets including the ones already mentioned. The early afternoon match on Saturday is a live game between Stoke and Wigan. Stoke’s only defeats at the Brittania Stadium have come against Chelsea and Manchester United. They’ve had four wins out of five in their other home games and are 11/10 favourites to gain a fifth. The aftermath of their defeat at Arsenal last week resulted in a cancelled night out in London and extra training. A confrontation between striker James Beattie and manager Tony Pulis ensued. Sometimes teams can pull together in the face of such adversity and it would be interesting to have canvassed opinion of the other members of Stoke’s squad to see if the party cancellation met with the same disappointment as was evidenced in known party-boy Beattie’s reaction. If the others have rolled up their sleeves and got on with preparation for Wigan then 11/10 looks a fair price.
Manchester City are 5/6 to build on the victory over Chelsea with a win at Bolton. If the Chelsea match was the signal that City had turned the corner then it looks another price that punters will get stuck into. The note of caution is that they haven’t won an away game in the league since the 30th of August.
With rumours of administration on the horizon, Portsmouth may have other stuff on their minds when they make the long trip to Sunderland. It’s away from home where The Black Cats struggle and the price of 4/5 looks decent when put against a home record of P7 W5 D1 L1. The solitary loss came at the hands of title favourites Chelsea, which can instantly be forgiven. A Stoke, Manchester City and Sunderland treble pays just under 6/1.
Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester United will be popular in multiple bets as the three shortest priced Premier League favourites of the day. With Tottenham susceptible to conceding goals regardless of their opposition I’d fancy Wolves to get at least one at White Hart Lane. A high scoring home win with both teams scoring looks a value play on the correct score market. 4-1 is 16/1, 4-2 is 66/1 and 5-1 is 33/1, all appeal to small stakes. A lot will be made of Chelsea’s need to reverse a run of three winless matches when they take on Everton at Stamford Bridge. Put into context, The Blues will only be rueing the defeat in the league at Manchester City and odds of 1/4 accurately reflect their chances of getting back on track. They need to get back to the clean-sheets of a few weeks ago and against a side that have failed to score in two of their last four matches. A home win without a goal conceded is Evens on our match specials. Those preferring to predict the score could do worse than play 3-0 at 15/2, 4-0 at 12/1 or even 5-0 at 25/1.
Manchester United’s makeshift squad fared well on their midweek trip to Wolfsburg, but they now line up against a decent Aston Villa outfit. Martin O’Neill’s team have found the net in every game since the first day of the season. They can certainly do the same at Old Trafford, although I think United will at least match them. 2-2 looks a decent call at a huge 22/1.
It’s the X Factor Final weekend and Alan Alger from Blue Square takes us through the prices for the ITV show:
Geordie Joe McElderry is still the clear odds-on favourite to win the 2009 series of X Factor as the final shows approach this weekend. The two-night extravaganza is the hottest ticket in town and the final line up is worthy of the attention. Joe lines up against Essex duo Olly Murs and Stacey Solomon in the high profile reality TV showdown. McElderry is priced at 4/9 to give ‘manager’ Cheryl Cole her second successive winning year since taking over from Sharon Osbourne. The big market move since last week’s semi-final has seen Olly claim second favouritism from Stacey. Murs is now 4/1, with Solomon out to 9/2. The increase in support for Olly can be attributed to Danyl’s departure last week. He is Simon’s remaining act from the ‘Over 25’s’ section and some Danyl supporters may switch their votes to him. Stacey’s popularity has been two-fold as she has won fans with her singing and her personality. Whether that popularity transfers into votes remains to be seen although, along with Joe, she is one of only two contestants not to require a sing-off. Olly finished in the bottom two as recently as ‘Week 7’ and that would be a concern for his backers.
At this time we also offer a special ‘Forecast’ bet on which order the contestants will finish in. Joe to come first with Stacey second is unusually the favourite at 13/8, which is slightly out of line with the market. Our traders viewing a second placed finish for Danni’s female much more likely than a win or third place. Their reasoning could be that Olly and Joe will split the girl vote, whilst Stacey has general appeal to take her to a certain level. Any combination with Joe out of the top two is available at a big price – Olly first, Stacey second at 14/1, the other way round at 16/1. It does seem impossible that Joe will finish out of the top two but reality shows have the habit of biting the favourite on the backside as they’re just about to cross the finishing line. Voters sometimes believe it’s a done deal so don’t waste their time or money and that can produce a late surge for an outsider.